V-Lab
U Y Fincorp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
9,293.66
increased by 8,123.30
1 Week
2,707.77
increased by 1,537.41
1 Month
2,259.96
increased by 1,089.60
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6295 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3907 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6093 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -5.0431 | |
| γ2 | 7.5089 | |
| γ3 | -6.5440 | |
| γ4 | 8.8801 | |
| γ5 | -7.3972 | |
| γ6 | -2.5053 | |
| γ7 | 8.8712 | |
| γ8 | 4.2510 | |
| γ9 | -17.0961 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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