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U Y Fincorp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

9,293.66

increased by 8,123.30

1 Week

2,707.77

increased by 1,537.41

1 Month

2,259.96

increased by 1,089.60

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of U Y Fincorp Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6295
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3907
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6093
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-5.0431
γ27.5089
γ3-6.5440
γ48.8801
γ5-7.3972
γ6-2.5053
γ78.8712
γ84.2510
γ9-17.0961

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days