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U Y Fincorp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

2,364,016,000.00

increased by 2,364,009,208.20

1 Week

472,808,867.95

increased by 472,802,076.15

1 Month

107,464,267.33

increased by 107,457,475.53

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of U Y Fincorp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

121
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0746
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9339
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0169
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8171
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0105
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9887

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days