V-Lab
U Y Fincorp Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
2,364,016,000.00
1 Week
472,808,867.95
1 Month
107,464,267.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9339 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0169 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8171 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0105 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9887 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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