V-Lab
United Distributors PAK Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
7,368.13
increased by 3,146.86
1 Week
4,085.30
decreased by 135.97
1 Month
3,030.16
decreased by 1,191.11
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 282 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3406 | 2.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1729 | 9.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8247 | 44.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -1.1676 | -2.05** |
| γ2 | 1.8449 | 2.49** |
| γ3 | -0.8868 | -2.71*** |
| γ4 | -1.2917 | -2.32** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
282 days
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