Skip to main content
V-Lab

United Distributors PAK Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

7,368.13

increased by 3,146.86

1 Week

4,085.30

decreased by 135.97

1 Month

3,030.16

decreased by 1,191.11

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of United Distributors PAK Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 282 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3406
2.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1729
9.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8247
44.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-1.1676
-2.05**
γ21.8449
2.49**
γ3-0.8868
-2.71***
γ4-1.2917
-2.32**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

282 days