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V-Lab

Text SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026

1 Day

4,756.56

decreased by 241.23

1 Week

5,081.67

increased by 83.88

1 Month

6,301.25

increased by 1,303.46

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Text SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 11, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9529
4.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1780
4.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6154
8.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4877
-0.61
γ20.6021
0.49
γ30.9592
1.44
γ4-1.5939
-4.34***
γ5-0.0751
-0.26
γ61.7584
6.38***
γ7-2.0628
-7.35***
γ81.2501
4.66***
γ9-0.2712
-1.08
γ100.0683
0.22

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days