V-Lab
Text SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,756.56
decreased by 241.23
1 Week
5,081.67
increased by 83.88
1 Month
6,301.25
increased by 1,303.46
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9529 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1780 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6154 | 8.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4877 | -0.61 |
| γ2 | 0.6021 | 0.49 |
| γ3 | 0.9592 | 1.44 |
| γ4 | -1.5939 | -4.34*** |
| γ5 | -0.0751 | -0.26 |
| γ6 | 1.7584 | 6.38*** |
| γ7 | -2.0628 | -7.35*** |
| γ8 | 1.2501 | 4.66*** |
| γ9 | -0.2712 | -1.08 |
| γ10 | 0.0683 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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