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Text SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026

1 Day

5,289.43

decreased by 263.46

1 Week

5,685.65

increased by 132.76

1 Month

6,597.12

increased by 1,044.23

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Text SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 11, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7876 trading days (~31.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 198% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9480
0.16
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0258
2.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9485
159.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0511
2.92***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7876 days