V-Lab
Text SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,289.43
1 Week
5,685.65
1 Month
6,597.12
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7876 trading days (~31.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 198% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9480 | 0.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0258 | 2.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9485 | 159.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0511 | 2.92*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7876 days
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