V-Lab
T-Cap Securities JSC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
1 Day
8,052.02
increased by 6,137.13
1 Week
4,983.46
increased by 3,068.57
1 Month
1,986.22
increased by 71.33
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2018 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2803 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2398 | 10.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7569 | 32.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0620 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 0.5923 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
205 days
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