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T-Cap Securities JSC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026

1 Day

8,052.02

increased by 6,137.13

1 Week

4,983.46

increased by 3,068.57

1 Month

1,986.22

increased by 71.33

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of T-Cap Securities JSC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 2018 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2803
4.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2398
10.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7569
32.09***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0620
-0.57
γ20.5923
2.47**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

205 days