How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	61
αARCH	0.2162	5.78***
βGARCH	0.8078	63.33***
γleverage	-0.0480	-0.91
λ₁tau intercept	7.6856	0.26
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0376	0.13
λ₃tau persistence	0.9624	3.69***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	61
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.2162	5.78***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8078	63.33***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0480	-0.91
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	7.6856	0.26
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0376	0.13
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9624	3.69***

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T-Cap Securities JSC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other T-Cap Securities JSC Analyses