V-Lab
TSS Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
7,134.20
decreased by 52.58
1 Week
7,225.28
increased by 38.50
1 Month
6,023.73
decreased by 1,163.05
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 3, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9627 trading days (~38.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9340 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0998 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9001 | 18.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.9112 | 3.10*** |
| γ2 | -3.5795 | -3.45*** |
| γ3 | 2.7149 | 2.87*** |
| γ4 | -1.1179 | -1.29 |
| γ5 | -1.0010 | -1.10 |
| γ6 | 1.4818 | 2.01** |
| γ7 | -0.2060 | -0.31 |
| γ8 | 0.6059 | 0.60 |
| γ9 | -4.8755 | -3.81*** |
| γ10 | 9.3609 | 5.91*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9627 days
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