V-Lab
TSS Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
7,330.99
1 Week
7,286.96
1 Month
5,993.83
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 3, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 16119 trading days (~64.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 0.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9173 | 347.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0876 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0476 | 0.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9283 | 12.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
16119 days
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