Trust Modaraba Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
6,088.47
decreased by 73.12
1 Week
5,712.98
decreased by 448.61
1 Month
4,595.17
decreased by 1,566.42
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23105 trading days (~91.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~23105 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8330 | 0.56 |
| αARCH | 0.1638 | 0.19 |
| βGARCH | 0.8362 | 0.98 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4434 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -1.7092 | -0.99 |
| γ3 | 2.3967 | 3.66*** |
| γ4 | -0.9136 | -0.39 |
| γ5 | 0.9138 | 0.15 |
| γ6 | -9.4803 | -0.44 |
| γ7 | 18.3244 | 0.48 |
| γ8 | -12.3481 | -0.61 |
| γ9 | 0.7620 | 0.12 |
| γ10 | 2.4257 | 0.79 |
1.000
Persistence23105d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8330 | 0.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1638 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8362 | 0.98 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4434 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -1.7092 | -0.99 |
| γ3 | 2.3967 | 3.66*** |
| γ4 | -0.9136 | -0.39 |
| γ5 | 0.9138 | 0.15 |
| γ6 | -9.4803 | -0.44 |
| γ7 | 18.3244 | 0.48 |
| γ8 | -12.3481 | -0.61 |
| γ9 | 0.7620 | 0.12 |
| γ10 | 2.4257 | 0.79 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23105 days
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