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Trust Modaraba Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

6,088.47

decreased by 73.12

1 Week

5,712.98

decreased by 448.61

1 Month

4,595.17

decreased by 1,566.42

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Modaraba ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1996 to Nov 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23105 trading days (~91.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~23105 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8330
0.56
αARCH0.1638
0.19
βGARCH0.8362
0.98
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.4434
0.35
γ2-1.7092
-0.99
γ32.3967
3.66***
γ4-0.9136
-0.39
γ50.9138
0.15
γ6-9.4803
-0.44
γ718.3244
0.48
γ8-12.3481
-0.61
γ90.7620
0.12
γ102.4257
0.79

1.000

Persistence

23105d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8330
0.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1638
0.19
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8362
0.98
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.4434
0.35
γ2-1.7092
-0.99
γ32.3967
3.66***
γ4-0.9136
-0.39
γ50.9138
0.15
γ6-9.4803
-0.44
γ718.3244
0.48
γ8-12.3481
-0.61
γ90.7620
0.12
γ102.4257
0.79

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

23105 days