Troax Group AB Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
4,524.29
decreased by 126.65
1 Week
4,504.31
decreased by 146.63
1 Month
4,851.59
increased by 200.65
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5333 | 10.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1094 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8559 | 45.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0163 | 3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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