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V-Lab

Trainline PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

4,810.75

increased by 328.03

1 Week

4,838.82

increased by 356.10

1 Month

4,421.70

decreased by 61.02

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trainline PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 21, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3313
9.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0710
5.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9018
49.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0584
-3.61***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days