V-Lab
Trainline PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
5,091.80
increased by 477.70
1 Week
4,888.80
increased by 274.70
1 Month
4,445.74
decreased by 168.36
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1883 trading days (~7.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 93% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.68 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 10.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 418.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0400 | 4.49*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1883 days
Other Trainline PLC Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities