Skip to main content
V-Lab

Trainline PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

5,091.80

increased by 477.70

1 Week

4,888.80

increased by 274.70

1 Month

4,445.74

decreased by 168.36

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trainline PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 21, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1883 trading days (~7.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 93% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.68
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0431
10.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9365
418.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0400
4.49***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1883 days