Tecnicas Reunidas SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
5,869.69
decreased by 412.19
1 Week
5,717.70
decreased by 564.18
1 Month
4,695.11
decreased by 1,586.77
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~141 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1591 | 7.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0898 | 13.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9053 | 129.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0046 | 1.98** |
0.995
Persistence141d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1591 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0898 | 13.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9053 | 129.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0046 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
141 days
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