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Transpek Industry Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

5,662.24

increased by 2,227.06

1 Week

3,385.90

decreased by 49.28

1 Month

2,905.97

decreased by 529.21

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Transpek Industry ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5653
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1313
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8687
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.7533
γ2-5.1585
γ39.3462
γ4-4.1301
γ5-3.3485
γ62.9421
γ7-0.7632
γ80.6701

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days