V-Lab
Transpek Industry Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,662.24
increased by 2,227.06
1 Week
3,385.90
decreased by 49.28
1 Month
2,905.97
decreased by 529.21
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5653 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1313 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8687 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.7533 | |
| γ2 | -5.1585 | |
| γ3 | 9.3462 | |
| γ4 | -4.1301 | |
| γ5 | -3.3485 | |
| γ6 | 2.9421 | |
| γ7 | -0.7632 | |
| γ8 | 0.6701 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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