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Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3,088,496,000.00

decreased by 32,010,000.00

1 Week

3,100,502,600.00

decreased by 20,003,400.00

1 Month

3,180,445,941.18

increased by 59,939,941.18

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0180
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0918
6.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8961
66.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.5024
-1.01
γ21.6873
2.30**
γ3-2.1839
-4.29***
γ41.1731
2.89***
γ50.1187
0.32
γ6-0.8825
-2.05**
γ71.8694
3.30***
γ8-2.2477
-2.62***
γ91.8030
1.61

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days