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Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

5,334,253,000.00

decreased by 286,794,000.00

1 Week

5,473,763,000.00

decreased by 147,284,000.00

1 Month

3,400,430,714.29

decreased by 2,220,616,285.71

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0901
3.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0944
6.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8962
67.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.5112
-0.95
γ21.7180
2.13**
γ3-2.2044
-3.88***
γ41.1274
2.52**
γ50.2339
0.57
γ6-1.1110
-2.25**
γ72.2479
3.38***
γ8-2.6013
-2.73***
γ92.0091
1.75*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days