Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
5,334,253,000.00
decreased by 286,794,000.00
1 Week
5,473,763,000.00
decreased by 147,284,000.00
1 Month
3,400,430,714.29
decreased by 2,220,616,285.71
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0901 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0944 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8962 | 67.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5112 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 1.7180 | 2.13** |
| γ3 | -2.2044 | -3.88*** |
| γ4 | 1.1274 | 2.52** |
| γ5 | 0.2339 | 0.57 |
| γ6 | -1.1110 | -2.25** |
| γ7 | 2.2479 | 3.38*** |
| γ8 | -2.6013 | -2.73*** |
| γ9 | 2.0091 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
Other Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds