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Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

7,944,749,000.00

increased by 4,768,449,000.00

1 Week

4,072,965,800.00

increased by 896,665,800.00

1 Month

3,158,350,941.18

decreased by 17,949,058.82

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3927
3.21***
αARCH0.0958
6.34***
βGARCH0.8785
47.78***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.7174
-7.55***
γ23.1911
8.61***
γ3-2.4350
-7.16***
γ41.1380
3.68***
γ50.0773
0.26
γ6-0.7140
-2.06**
γ71.5357
3.19***
γ8-1.9080
-2.42**
γ91.5998
1.50

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3927
3.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0958
6.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8785
47.78***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.7174
-7.55***
γ23.1911
8.61***
γ3-2.4350
-7.16***
γ41.1380
3.68***
γ50.0773
0.26
γ6-0.7140
-2.06**
γ71.5357
3.19***
γ8-1.9080
-2.42**
γ91.5998
1.50

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days