Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,224,050,000.00
decreased by 194,620,000.00
1 Week
4,566,322,000.00
increased by 147,652,000.00
1 Month
3,577,991,750.00
decreased by 840,678,250.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0840 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0937 | 6.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8967 | 67.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5122 | -0.96 |
| γ2 | 1.7191 | 2.15** |
| γ3 | -2.2043 | -3.89*** |
| γ4 | 1.1280 | 2.53** |
| γ5 | 0.2315 | 0.56 |
| γ6 | -1.1042 | -2.24** |
| γ7 | 2.2334 | 3.35*** |
| γ8 | -2.5817 | -2.70*** |
| γ9 | 1.9773 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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