V-Lab
UBS (CH) Property Fund - Direct LivingPlus Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
3,708.25
decreased by 156.87
1 Week
3,890.31
increased by 25.19
1 Month
4,834.05
increased by 968.93
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9757 | 13.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1142 | 10.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8192 | 40.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0042 | 3.56*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9757 | 13.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1142 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8192 | 40.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0042 | 3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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