V-Lab
BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
25,469.57
increased by 856.14
1 Week
27,637.49
increased by 3,024.06
1 Month
27,594.41
increased by 2,980.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5757 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1563 | 23.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8305 | 149.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.0117 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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