V-Lab
BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
36,894.76
decreased by 3,352.85
1 Week
36,969.61
decreased by 3,278.00
1 Month
35,921.15
decreased by 4,326.46
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6841 | 5.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.1539 | 24.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8345 | 151.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0071 | 6.05*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6841 | 5.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1539 | 24.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8345 | 151.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0071 | 6.05*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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