V-Lab
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
1,434.02
decreased by 94.61
1 Week
1,526.00
decreased by 2.63
1 Month
1,285.54
decreased by 243.09
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6120 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1252 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 63.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0069 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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