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Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

819.27

increased by 25.91

1 Week

891.95

increased by 98.59

1 Month

996.79

increased by 203.43

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 20, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1465
3.47***
αARCH0.1145
10.57***
βGARCH0.8789
68.90***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0011
0.15

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1465
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1145
10.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8789
68.90***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0011
0.15

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days