V-Lab
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
819.27
increased by 25.91
1 Week
891.95
increased by 98.59
1 Month
996.79
increased by 203.43
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1465 | 3.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1145 | 10.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8789 | 68.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.15 |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1465 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8789 | 68.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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