V-Lab
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
937.20
decreased by 59.96
1 Week
984.34
decreased by 12.82
1 Month
1,130.69
increased by 133.53
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2027 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.1161 | 10.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8769 | 68.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0019 | 0.26 |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2027 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1161 | 10.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8769 | 68.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0019 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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