V-Lab
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1,258.08
increased by 208.49
1 Week
1,176.80
increased by 127.21
1 Month
1,412.90
increased by 363.31
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9765 | 2.54** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1180 | 10.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8758 | 68.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.1209 | -0.97 |
| γ2 | 0.2058 | 1.06 |
| γ3 | -0.1352 | -1.04 |
| γ4 | 0.1156 | 0.84 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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