Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
1,599.73
increased by 88.46
1 Week
1,493.68
decreased by 17.59
1 Month
1,094.43
decreased by 416.84
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1831 | 3.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1158 | 10.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8775 | 68.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0016 | 0.23 |
0.993
Persistence104d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1831 | 3.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1158 | 10.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8775 | 68.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0016 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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