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Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

1,221.36

increased by 99.35

1 Week

1,212.60

increased by 90.59

1 Month

1,391.78

increased by 269.77

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 20, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 61% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
6.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0709
20.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9074
354.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0435
7.67***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days