V-Lab
Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
24,987.69
increased by 819.64
1 Week
22,950.80
decreased by 1,217.25
1 Month
23,700.68
decreased by 467.37
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9343 | 385.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0021 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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