V-Lab
Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
28,141.37
decreased by 1,007.37
1 Week
31,052.60
increased by 1,903.86
1 Month
33,082.81
increased by 3,934.07
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0773 | 4.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9312 | 97.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0171 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds