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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

11,662.04

increased by 695.33

1 Week

11,051.84

increased by 85.13

1 Month

10,108.32

decreased by 858.39

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 41% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.90
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0579
14.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9304
413.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0234
3.08***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days