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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
11,662.04
1 Week
11,051.84
1 Month
10,108.32
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 41% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0579 | 14.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9304 | 413.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0234 | 3.08*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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