V-Lab
Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6,240.50
1 Week
6,071.71
1 Month
6,009.27
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.12** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0466 | 9.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9337 | 411.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0393 | 5.46*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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