Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
6,326.16
1 Week
7,368.11
1 Month
7,667.75
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0974 | 9.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7874 | 21.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0974 | -4.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.74 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1922 | 5.37*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8078 | 23.87*** |
0.836
Persistence4d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7874 | 21.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0974 | -4.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.74 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1922 | 5.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8078 | 23.87*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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