V-Lab
PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,024.40
1 Week
7,800.20
1 Month
9,879.61
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1407 | 0.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6702 | 13.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1407 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4211 | 0.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5789 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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