PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
12,287.46
1 Week
11,562.35
1 Month
9,820.10
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1414 | 0.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6658 | 12.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1414 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4246 | 0.27 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5754 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.736
Half-life:
2 days
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