ArrowMark Financial Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
8,849.96
1 Week
10,075.86
1 Month
11,600.90
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1242 | 6.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8631 | 210.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0590 | -1.91* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9994 | 594.50*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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