V-Lab
ArrowMark Financial Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11,553.06
1 Week
10,800.68
1 Month
10,479.87
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1249 | 6.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8644 | 210.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0626 | -1.94* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9993 | 622.61*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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