V-Lab
NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
4,619,221.00
1 Week
4,232,300.60
1 Month
52,478,459.86
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3489 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4540 | 9.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2661 | 0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0143 | 0.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9857 | 38.50*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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