V-Lab
BioPharma Credit PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
4,821.10
1 Week
4,963.86
1 Month
4,703.40
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1464 | 8.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7857 | 36.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.1464 | -2.49** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 2.06** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0027 | 0.94 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9931 | 233.06*** |
0.859
Persistence5d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1464 | 8.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7857 | 36.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1464 | -2.49** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.06** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0027 | 0.94 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9931 | 233.06*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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