V-Lab
BioPharma Credit PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,264.12
1 Week
6,292.15
1 Month
3,881.67
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1463 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7865 | 99.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1463 | -1.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 6.38*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0027 | 2.09** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9931 | 1,480.03*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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