V-Lab
Future Generation Australia Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
27,457.61
1 Week
30,225.78
1 Month
33,975.34
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1280 | 0.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8697 | 37.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1280 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0574 | 0.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9408 | 12.70*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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