How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	66
αARCH	0.1275	13.31***
βGARCH	0.8700	70.62***
γleverage	-0.1275	-8.94***
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	0.46
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0574	7.24***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9408	180.78***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	66
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1275	13.31***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8700	70.62***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1275	-8.94***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	0.46
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0574	7.24***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9408	180.78***

V-Lab

Future Generation Australia Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Future Generation Australia Ltd Analyses