Future Generation Australia Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
24,635.53
1 Week
22,896.53
1 Month
31,966.04
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.1273 | 13.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8701 | 70.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.1273 | -8.93*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.46 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0574 | 7.25*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9408 | 180.75*** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1273 | 13.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8701 | 70.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1273 | -8.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0574 | 7.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9408 | 180.75*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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