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Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

985,459.50

decreased by 1,322.70

1 Week

833,912.12

decreased by 152,870.08

1 Month

999,773.97

increased by 12,991.77

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

121
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3431
0.19
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8285
74.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3431
-0.11
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0010
0.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.12
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2083
1.10

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-