V-Lab
Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
161,947.30
1 Week
234,519.08
1 Month
687,342.95
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3327 | 0.21 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8286 | 62.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3327 | -0.13 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6542 | 5.05*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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