Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
329,579.00
decreased by 99,940.30
1 Week
416,313.70
decreased by 13,205.60
1 Month
388,050.26
decreased by 41,469.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6787 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2444 | 5.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7339 | 17.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.7852 | -5.56*** |
| γ2 | 2.5283 | 5.00*** |
| γ3 | -0.6146 | -1.32 |
| γ4 | -0.4827 | -0.82 |
| γ5 | 0.6899 | 1.19 |
| γ6 | -0.4922 | -1.08 |
| γ7 | 0.4616 | 1.01 |
| γ8 | -0.3921 | -0.64 |
| γ9 | -4.0167 | -1.65* |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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