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Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

199,458.00

decreased by 56,526.30

1 Week

287,117.58

increased by 31,133.28

1 Month

354,487.07

increased by 98,502.77

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7464
1.71*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2424
5.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7402
17.98***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.7789
-5.45***
γ22.5298
4.94***
γ3-0.6361
-1.38
γ4-0.4579
-0.78
γ50.6698
1.15
γ6-0.4761
-1.06
γ70.4648
1.04
γ8-0.4512
-0.78
γ9-4.2613
-1.62

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days