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Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

329,579.00

decreased by 99,940.30

1 Week

416,313.70

decreased by 13,205.60

1 Month

388,050.26

decreased by 41,469.04

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6787
1.87*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2444
5.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7339
17.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.7852
-5.56***
γ22.5283
5.00***
γ3-0.6146
-1.32
γ4-0.4827
-0.82
γ50.6899
1.19
γ6-0.4922
-1.08
γ70.4616
1.01
γ8-0.3921
-0.64
γ9-4.0167
-1.65*

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days