V-Lab
Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17,678.00
increased by 939.62
1 Week
28,691.53
increased by 11,953.15
1 Month
223,864.36
increased by 207,125.98
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0550 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2310 | 5.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7470 | 19.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.5259 | -5.62*** |
| γ2 | 2.4644 | 5.42*** |
| γ3 | -1.2692 | -4.11*** |
| γ4 | 0.4440 | 2.03** |
| γ5 | -0.1616 | -0.50 |
| γ6 | 0.2826 | 0.82 |
| γ7 | -0.2030 | -0.41 |
| γ8 | -3.3355 | -2.04** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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