V-Lab
Tetragon Financial Group Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
199,458.00
decreased by 56,526.30
1 Week
287,117.58
increased by 31,133.28
1 Month
354,487.07
increased by 98,502.77
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7464 | 1.71* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2424 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7402 | 17.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.7789 | -5.45*** |
| γ2 | 2.5298 | 4.94*** |
| γ3 | -0.6361 | -1.38 |
| γ4 | -0.4579 | -0.78 |
| γ5 | 0.6698 | 1.15 |
| γ6 | -0.4761 | -1.06 |
| γ7 | 0.4648 | 1.04 |
| γ8 | -0.4512 | -0.78 |
| γ9 | -4.2613 | -1.62 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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