V-Lab
WAM Active Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
53,301.84
decreased by 5,461.80
1 Week
52,536.07
decreased by 6,227.57
1 Month
49,001.58
decreased by 9,762.06
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4070 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1910 | 4.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4581 | 6.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5227 | -1.61 |
| γ2 | 0.6894 | 1.40 |
| γ3 | 0.3530 | 1.11 |
| γ4 | -1.0366 | -3.79*** |
| γ5 | 0.9058 | 3.03*** |
| γ6 | -0.8774 | -2.53** |
| γ7 | 0.9039 | 2.06** |
| γ8 | 0.3788 | 0.52 |
| γ9 | -3.0001 | -2.53** |
| γ10 | 3.5880 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.649
Half-life:
2 days
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