WAM Active Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
50,157.76
decreased by 4,334.73
1 Week
55,211.31
increased by 718.82
1 Month
54,927.14
increased by 434.65
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4035 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1941 | 4.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4327 | 5.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5118 | -1.59 |
| γ2 | 0.6664 | 1.36 |
| γ3 | 0.3764 | 1.19 |
| γ4 | -1.0554 | -3.87*** |
| γ5 | 0.9168 | 3.07*** |
| γ6 | -0.8714 | -2.51** |
| γ7 | 0.8584 | 1.93* |
| γ8 | 0.4643 | 0.63 |
| γ9 | -3.0529 | -2.59*** |
| γ10 | 3.5522 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.627
Half-life:
1 days
Other WAM Active Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds