V-Lab
UBS CH Property Fund - Swiss Mixed Sima Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
1,584.29
decreased by 230.07
1 Week
1,914.79
increased by 100.43
1 Month
1,970.20
increased by 155.84
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3600 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1272 | 9.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8218 | 31.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0141 | -3.95*** |
| γ2 | 0.0210 | 4.48*** |
| γ3 | -0.0094 | -3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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