V-Lab
Acorn Capital Investment Fund Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
393,993.50
increased by 308,621.06
1 Week
297,518.54
increased by 212,146.10
1 Month
433,170.71
increased by 347,798.27
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1640 | 0.94 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9934 | 68.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0736 | -0.30 |
| γ2 | -0.0560 | -0.16 |
| γ3 | 0.2433 | 0.57 |
| γ4 | 0.0960 | 0.21 |
| γ5 | 0.0392 | 0.09 |
| γ6 | -2.2708 | -2.12** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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