V-Lab
Acorn Capital Investment Fund Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22,096.50
decreased by 91,101.50
1 Week
81,973.38
decreased by 31,224.62
1 Month
292,674.44
increased by 179,476.44
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9052 | 0.89 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9928 | 60.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0796 | -0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.0457 | -0.13 |
| γ3 | 0.2356 | 0.57 |
| γ4 | 0.1156 | 0.26 |
| γ5 | -0.0219 | -0.05 |
| γ6 | -2.1636 | -2.03** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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