V-Lab
Acorn Capital Investment Fund Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
73,357.93
decreased by 351,612.67
1 Week
257,330.81
decreased by 167,639.79
1 Month
439,016.52
increased by 14,045.92
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6056 | 0.80 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9918 | 47.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0485 | 0.04 |
| γ2 | -0.1912 | -0.09 |
| γ3 | -0.1397 | -0.08 |
| γ4 | 0.7702 | 0.55 |
| γ5 | -1.2540 | -1.38 |
| γ6 | 2.3098 | 3.13*** |
| γ7 | -2.8076 | -2.46** |
| γ8 | 2.9572 | 1.77* |
| γ9 | -4.1293 | -1.79* |
| γ10 | 2.1206 | 0.66 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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