V-Lab
Neuberger Private Equity Partners Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
6,104.63
decreased by 176.32
1 Week
6,541.90
increased by 260.95
1 Month
8,465.67
increased by 2,184.72
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9337 | 4.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0994 | 5.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8286 | 30.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4748 | -3.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.7066 | 3.63*** |
| γ3 | -0.2485 | -2.58*** |
| γ4 | 0.0291 | 0.31 |
| γ5 | -0.0309 | -0.37 |
| γ6 | 0.0350 | 0.37 |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9337 | 4.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0994 | 5.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8286 | 30.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4748 | -3.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.7066 | 3.63*** |
| γ3 | -0.2485 | -2.58*** |
| γ4 | 0.0291 | 0.31 |
| γ5 | -0.0309 | -0.37 |
| γ6 | 0.0350 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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