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JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
5,144.02
increased by 44.00
1 Week
5,252.08
increased by 152.06
1 Month
5,689.39
increased by 589.37
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9126 | 2.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0635 | 0.08 |
| βGARCH | 0.9365 | 1.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0253 | -0.04 |
1.000
Persistence231049d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9126 | 2.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 1.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0253 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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