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JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

5,144.02

increased by 44.00

1 Week

5,252.08

increased by 152.06

1 Month

5,689.39

increased by 589.37

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9126
2.65***
αARCH0.0635
0.08
βGARCH0.9365
1.20
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0253
-0.04

1.000

Persistence

231049d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9126
2.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0635
0.08
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9365
1.20
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0253
-0.04

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days