V-Lab
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,821.98
increased by 1,305.67
1 Week
4,820.58
increased by 304.27
1 Month
4,688.98
increased by 172.67
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9175 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0636 | 0.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9364 | 1.87* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0244 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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