V-Lab
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3,968.22
increased by 218.06
1 Week
3,772.15
increased by 21.99
1 Month
3,653.74
decreased by 96.42
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9595 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 0.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 4.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0219 | -0.12 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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