V-Lab
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,477.27
decreased by 362.06
1 Week
5,832.82
decreased by 6.51
1 Month
5,453.15
decreased by 386.18
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9167 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0638 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9362 | 1.32 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0229 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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