V-Lab
JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
6,120.19
decreased by 80.88
1 Week
5,894.92
decreased by 306.15
1 Month
5,627.64
decreased by 573.43
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~77016 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9155 | 4.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0632 | 1.68* |
| βGARCH | 0.9368 | 25.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0228 | -0.63 |
1.000
Persistence77016d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9155 | 4.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 1.68* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9368 | 25.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0228 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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