JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
6,535.19
decreased by 216.47
1 Week
6,723.06
decreased by 28.60
1 Month
4,953.94
decreased by 1,797.72
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9156 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0633 | 0.52 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9367 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -0.22 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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