V-Lab
UBS (CH) Property Fund - Direct LivingPlus Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,836.20
decreased by 330.69
1 Week
6,337.07
increased by 170.18
1 Month
5,913.51
decreased by 253.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9862 | 13.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1123 | 10.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8228 | 41.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0045 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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