V-Lab
UBS (CH) Property Fund - Direct LivingPlus Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
5,344.60
decreased by 20.08
1 Week
5,506.12
increased by 141.44
1 Month
5,805.81
increased by 441.13
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9818 | 13.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.1135 | 10.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8199 | 40.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 3.74*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9818 | 13.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1135 | 10.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8199 | 40.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 3.74*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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