V-Lab
UBS (CH) Property Fund - Direct LivingPlus Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,064.08
increased by 540.66
1 Week
5,107.58
decreased by 415.84
1 Month
5,498.05
decreased by 25.37
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9833 | 13.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1132 | 10.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8209 | 40.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 3.70*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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