V-Lab
INVESCO Asia Dragon Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,176.75
increased by 400.20
1 Week
5,764.46
increased by 987.91
1 Month
7,147.00
increased by 2,370.45
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5035 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1821 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8179 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -2.3561 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.9944 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.8234 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.2387 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 1.0760 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.9282 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.3821 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.4657 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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