V-Lab
INVESCO Asia Dragon Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,259.33
increased by 1,734.62
1 Week
6,134.78
increased by 610.07
1 Month
7,148.70
increased by 1,623.99
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0752 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1923 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8077 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -2.1970 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.7877 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.7540 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.2505 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 1.0629 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.9513 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.4244 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.4630 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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