V-Lab
INVESCO Asia Dragon Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
12,947.79
increased by 905.32
1 Week
9,621.13
decreased by 2,421.34
1 Month
7,707.15
decreased by 4,335.32
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5690 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3804 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6196 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -2.2281 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.8133 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.7316 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.2435 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.9769 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.8362 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.3387 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.3738 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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