V-Lab
INVESCO Asia Dragon Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,218.32
decreased by 35.95
1 Week
5,284.81
increased by 30.54
1 Month
5,065.14
decreased by 189.13
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 100.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0157 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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