V-Lab
Bailador Technology Investments Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
103,385.80
increased by 13,769.59
1 Week
94,256.07
increased by 4,639.86
1 Month
113,393.45
increased by 23,777.24
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 17.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 212.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0017 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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