V-Lab
BB Biotech AG Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
22,449.53
1 Week
23,816.54
1 Month
24,400.49
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 31% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.89 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 32.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 913.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0374 | 5.03*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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