V-Lab
Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
68,744.12
decreased by 4,580.92
1 Week
72,917.50
decreased by 407.54
1 Month
57,625.40
decreased by 15,699.64
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9100 | 104.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0037 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds