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Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

45,102.42

decreased by 4,468.83

1 Week

49,916.84

increased by 345.59

1 Month

49,830.59

increased by 259.34

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
5.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9098
103.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0038
-0.24

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-