V-Lab
Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
51,512.39
decreased by 5,526.77
1 Week
56,836.55
decreased by 202.61
1 Month
56,711.37
decreased by 327.79
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8831 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1064 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5262 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.0788 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -3.9296 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 8.6251 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -9.2878 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 5.5972 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -1.0633 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.4092 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -0.4159 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 1.0241 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
Other Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds