V-Lab
Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
94,660.23
decreased by 6,699.57
1 Week
77,970.04
decreased by 23,389.76
1 Month
66,766.39
decreased by 34,593.41
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1537 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1082 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8918 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5102 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1025 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -3.7024 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 8.1751 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -8.9160 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 5.5155 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.7936 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -1.3213 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.5529 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 0.7226 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
Other Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds