V-Lab
Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
82,428.12
decreased by 6,530.13
1 Week
88,211.34
decreased by 746.91
1 Month
70,099.56
decreased by 18,858.69
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0424 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1078 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8921 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5940 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.3485 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -3.3942 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 7.9228 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -8.7343 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 5.5979 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -1.4681 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.3981 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.0580 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 0.8176 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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