V-Lab
Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
43,254.80
increased by 7,950.40
1 Week
33,036.87
decreased by 2,267.53
1 Month
26,360.83
decreased by 8,943.57
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5500 | 11.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.1041 | 6.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8427 | 36.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0086 | -2.08** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5500 | 11.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1041 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8427 | 36.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0086 | -2.08** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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