V-Lab
Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26,281.16
decreased by 1,047.93
1 Week
29,421.82
increased by 2,092.73
1 Month
28,304.82
increased by 975.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5520 | 11.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 6.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8425 | 36.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0084 | -2.01** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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