V-Lab
Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
32,940.19
increased by 5,233.25
1 Week
29,640.30
increased by 1,933.36
1 Month
33,974.05
increased by 6,267.11
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5616 | 11.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1044 | 6.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8420 | 35.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0079 | -1.94* |
0.946
Persistence13d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5616 | 11.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8420 | 35.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0079 | -1.94* |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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