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L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

9,939.55

increased by 1,307.60

1 Week

9,587.61

increased by 955.66

1 Month

9,298.01

increased by 666.06

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7742
7.33***
αARCH0.1015
12.20***
βGARCH0.8748
89.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0653
-4.86***
γ20.1240
6.05***
γ3-0.1174
-8.01***
γ40.1136
7.68***
γ5-0.1280
-6.75***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7742
7.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1015
12.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8748
89.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0653
-4.86***
γ20.1240
6.05***
γ3-0.1174
-8.01***
γ40.1136
7.68***
γ5-0.1280
-6.75***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days