V-Lab
L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
9,608.43
increased by 887.72
1 Week
8,454.44
decreased by 266.27
1 Month
9,049.23
increased by 328.52
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7558 | 7.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1030 | 12.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8720 | 87.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0668 | -5.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.1270 | 6.27*** |
| γ3 | -0.1202 | -8.37*** |
| γ4 | 0.1157 | 8.09*** |
| γ5 | -0.1282 | -6.88*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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