V-Lab
L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
8,616.46
decreased by 1,006.01
1 Week
9,401.48
decreased by 220.99
1 Month
8,935.59
decreased by 686.88
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7622 | 7.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1026 | 12.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8727 | 87.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0663 | -4.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.1260 | 6.20*** |
| γ3 | -0.1193 | -8.27*** |
| γ4 | 0.1153 | 7.98*** |
| γ5 | -0.1289 | -6.89*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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