MFF Capital Investments Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
4,268.35
decreased by 30.47
1 Week
4,829.97
increased by 531.15
1 Month
6,074.86
increased by 1,776.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5585 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1283 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8104 | 26.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3631 | -8.34*** |
| γ2 | 0.4660 | 7.44*** |
| γ3 | -0.1014 | -3.15*** |
| γ4 | -0.0075 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | 0.0019 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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