V-Lab
MFF Capital Investments Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,090.44
increased by 465.95
1 Week
4,642.85
increased by 18.36
1 Month
5,562.71
increased by 938.22
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5636 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1285 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8106 | 26.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3592 | -8.40*** |
| γ2 | 0.4630 | 7.51*** |
| γ3 | -0.1045 | -3.30*** |
| γ4 | -0.0020 | -0.08 |
| γ5 | -0.0134 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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