V-Lab
MFF Capital Investments Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,979.73
decreased by 202.56
1 Week
5,617.87
decreased by 564.42
1 Month
5,050.94
decreased by 1,131.35
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5612 | 6.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1285 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8104 | 26.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3612 | -8.37*** |
| γ2 | 0.4646 | 7.47*** |
| γ3 | -0.1030 | -3.22*** |
| γ4 | -0.0048 | -0.19 |
| γ5 | -0.0055 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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