V-Lab
MFF Capital Investments Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6,610.83
decreased by 151.89
1 Week
6,454.37
decreased by 308.35
1 Month
5,246.59
decreased by 1,516.13
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5621 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1284 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8106 | 26.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3605 | -8.38*** |
| γ2 | 0.4639 | 7.48*** |
| γ3 | -0.1032 | -3.24*** |
| γ4 | -0.0046 | -0.18 |
| γ5 | -0.0055 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
Other MFF Capital Investments Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds