V-Lab
Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
253,027.90
decreased by 48,179.10
1 Week
302,465.32
increased by 1,258.32
1 Month
201,459.70
decreased by 99,747.30
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5454 | 2.31** |
| αARCH | 0.1788 | 4.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6821 | 11.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8607 | -0.93 |
| γ2 | 3.7795 | 1.30 |
| γ3 | -3.5438 | -2.42** |
| γ4 | 3.0718 | 2.61*** |
| γ5 | -3.0459 | -2.06** |
| γ6 | 2.9033 | 2.29** |
| γ7 | -1.8787 | -2.66*** |
| γ8 | 0.8315 | 1.60 |
| γ9 | -0.4301 | -0.65 |
| γ10 | 0.9449 | 0.83 |
0.861
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5454 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1788 | 4.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6821 | 11.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8607 | -0.93 |
| γ2 | 3.7795 | 1.30 |
| γ3 | -3.5438 | -2.42** |
| γ4 | 3.0718 | 2.61*** |
| γ5 | -3.0459 | -2.06** |
| γ6 | 2.9033 | 2.29** |
| γ7 | -1.8787 | -2.66*** |
| γ8 | 0.8315 | 1.60 |
| γ9 | -0.4301 | -0.65 |
| γ10 | 0.9449 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
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