V-Lab
Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
128,113.20
decreased by 1,783.80
1 Week
140,237.60
increased by 10,340.60
1 Month
174,278.60
increased by 44,381.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5880 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.1795 | 4.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6782 | 11.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.7804 | -0.90 |
| γ2 | 3.6549 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -3.4802 | -2.42** |
| γ4 | 3.0494 | 2.70*** |
| γ5 | -3.0645 | -2.13** |
| γ6 | 2.9861 | 2.33** |
| γ7 | -2.0019 | -2.73*** |
| γ8 | 0.9126 | 1.75* |
| γ9 | -0.4004 | -0.60 |
| γ10 | 0.7277 | 0.61 |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5880 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1795 | 4.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6782 | 11.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.7804 | -0.90 |
| γ2 | 3.6549 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -3.4802 | -2.42** |
| γ4 | 3.0494 | 2.70*** |
| γ5 | -3.0645 | -2.13** |
| γ6 | 2.9861 | 2.33** |
| γ7 | -2.0019 | -2.73*** |
| γ8 | 0.9126 | 1.75* |
| γ9 | -0.4004 | -0.60 |
| γ10 | 0.7277 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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