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Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

135,392.70

increased by 28,209.20

1 Week

119,157.20

increased by 11,973.70

1 Month

113,675.34

increased by 6,491.84

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bailador Technology Investments Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5250
2.30**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1776
4.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6819
11.31***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.8944
-0.94
γ23.8328
1.31
γ3-3.5652
-2.43**
γ43.0616
2.57**
γ5-3.0083
-2.02**
γ62.8305
2.25**
γ7-1.7747
-2.58***
γ80.7137
1.39
γ9-0.2795
-0.43
γ100.5203
0.49

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days