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Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

132,245.20

decreased by 1,919.60

1 Week

128,273.56

decreased by 5,891.24

1 Month

143,259.39

increased by 9,094.59

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bailador Technology Investments Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5056
2.28**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1791
4.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6838
11.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.9416
-0.95
γ23.9036
1.32
γ3-3.6007
-2.42**
γ43.0779
2.52**
γ5-3.0009
-1.98**
γ62.7810
2.22**
γ7-1.6938
-2.50**
γ80.6448
1.25
γ9-0.2508
-0.39
γ100.5404
0.54

Persistence:

0.863

Half-life:

5 days