V-Lab
Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
132,245.20
decreased by 1,919.60
1 Week
128,273.56
decreased by 5,891.24
1 Month
143,259.39
increased by 9,094.59
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5056 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1791 | 4.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6838 | 11.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.9416 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 3.9036 | 1.32 |
| γ3 | -3.6007 | -2.42** |
| γ4 | 3.0779 | 2.52** |
| γ5 | -3.0009 | -1.98** |
| γ6 | 2.7810 | 2.22** |
| γ7 | -1.6938 | -2.50** |
| γ8 | 0.6448 | 1.25 |
| γ9 | -0.2508 | -0.39 |
| γ10 | 0.5404 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.863
Half-life:
5 days
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