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Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

128,113.20

decreased by 1,783.80

1 Week

140,237.60

increased by 10,340.60

1 Month

174,278.60

increased by 44,381.60

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bailador Technology Investments Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5880
2.34**
αARCH0.1795
4.39***
βGARCH0.6782
11.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.7804
-0.90
γ23.6549
1.28
γ3-3.4802
-2.42**
γ43.0494
2.70***
γ5-3.0645
-2.13**
γ62.9861
2.33**
γ7-2.0019
-2.73***
γ80.9126
1.75*
γ9-0.4004
-0.60
γ100.7277
0.61

0.858

Persistence

5d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5880
2.34**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1795
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6782
11.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.7804
-0.90
γ23.6549
1.28
γ3-3.4802
-2.42**
γ43.0494
2.70***
γ5-3.0645
-2.13**
γ62.9861
2.33**
γ7-2.0019
-2.73***
γ80.9126
1.75*
γ9-0.4004
-0.60
γ100.7277
0.61

Persistence:

0.858

Half-life:

5 days