V-Lab
Bailador Technology Investments Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
135,392.70
increased by 28,209.20
1 Week
119,157.20
increased by 11,973.70
1 Month
113,675.34
increased by 6,491.84
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5250 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1776 | 4.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6819 | 11.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8944 | -0.94 |
| γ2 | 3.8328 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -3.5652 | -2.43** |
| γ4 | 3.0616 | 2.57** |
| γ5 | -3.0083 | -2.02** |
| γ6 | 2.8305 | 2.25** |
| γ7 | -1.7747 | -2.58*** |
| γ8 | 0.7137 | 1.39 |
| γ9 | -0.2795 | -0.43 |
| γ10 | 0.5203 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
Other Bailador Technology Investments Limited Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds