V-Lab
Excelsior Capital Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
28,513,360.00
decreased by 1,957,020.00
1 Week
33,105,990.00
increased by 2,635,610.00
1 Month
30,538,972.22
increased by 68,592.22
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1996 to Aug 19, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0794 | 3.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.2247 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7323 | 19.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0690 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | -0.2112 | -1.16 |
| γ3 | 0.5006 | 3.86*** |
| γ4 | -0.6117 | -3.89*** |
| γ5 | 0.2478 | 1.37 |
| γ6 | 0.3534 | 2.29** |
| γ7 | -0.9724 | -4.94*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0794 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2247 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7323 | 19.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0690 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | -0.2112 | -1.16 |
| γ3 | 0.5006 | 3.86*** |
| γ4 | -0.6117 | -3.89*** |
| γ5 | 0.2478 | 1.37 |
| γ6 | 0.3534 | 2.29** |
| γ7 | -0.9724 | -4.94*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
Other Excelsior Capital Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds