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Excelsior Capital Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

12,992,400.00

decreased by 381,010.00

1 Week

13,709,724.00

increased by 336,314.00

1 Month

13,821,044.44

increased by 447,634.44

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Excelsior Capital Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0149
3.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9711
197.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0280
1.60

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-