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Excelsior Capital Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

12,180,280.00

decreased by 367,430.00

1 Week

12,728,002.50

increased by 180,292.50

1 Month

15,291,828.82

increased by 2,744,118.82

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Excelsior Capital Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0148
3.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9707
190.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0290
1.56

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days