V-Lab
Excelsior Capital Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
11,541,070.00
decreased by 282,490.00
1 Week
12,197,986.00
increased by 374,426.00
1 Month
14,911,817.37
increased by 3,088,257.37
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0148 | 3.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9707 | 190.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0290 | 1.56 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Excelsior Capital Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds