Excelsior Capital Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
19,341,040.00
decreased by 522,320.00
1 Week
20,152,350.00
increased by 288,990.00
1 Month
24,639,980.00
increased by 4,776,620.00
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0152 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9725 | 210.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0245 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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